Using MMM for Planning: Forecasting vs. Optimization

White Paper

 

Why this white paper?

  • To clarify when MMM should be used to explore future scenarios versus when it should be used to optimize spend
  • To help teams avoid overconfidence in forecasts or misapplied optimization outputs
  • To bridge the gap between modeling outputs and executive decision-making

This white paper examines how MMM supports forecasting and optimization, why these are not the same thing, and what that distinction means in practice. It offers a clear, practitioner-led view on how to use MMM for planning that is both analytically sound and operationally realistic.

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Here is what will be covered in this white paper:

  • The practical differences between forecasting and optimization in MMM-based planning
  • How response curves, time effects, and aggregation shape planning outcomes
  • What’s required to move from static MMM studies to ongoing, decision-ready planning systems